As the result of a dramatic upset election, Donald Trump is president-elect of the United States. Hillary Clinton, who just weeks ago was thought to be infallible, has lost—the Obama coalition of women, minorities and millennials has crumbled around her. How in the world did this happen?
Why Trump Won
- DISENFRANCHISED VOTERS – Working-class America has long felt ignored by the White House. With the collapse of the steel, coal, and auto industries in the United States, primarily after the 2008 economic crisis, America’s working-class has been left wounded. Many feel that the system is broken, only benefitting the wealthy. Trump appealed to this discontent by pledging to make the system work for everyone.
- LABELLING – Despite her political experience, Hillary Clinton is an unpopular politician. Trump seized on Clinton’s ethical lapses, crafting a caricature of her as a corrupt, selfish, career politician. Americans largely bought into this narrative—during Clinton’s email investigations, her approval rating hit significant lows, due to the perception that she cannot be trusted. Trump did an excellent job of labelling his opponents in the primaries as malevolent cartoon foes. Examples include Low-Energy Jeb Bush, Lyin’ Ted Cruz, Little Marco Rubio, Oreo-eating Chris Christie, etc. Trump’s ability to seize on a trait and amplify it to become the popular perception is what brought him victory in the primaries, and in the general election.
- VOTER FATIGUE – Since the 2008 financial crisis, Americans have been angry with stagnant growth and dropping oil prices. This left many feeling like they were going nowhere fast, and wondering if “the system” had failed them. With Bernie Sanders (who also used a “fix the broken system” appeal) losing the Democratic nomination contest, Trump was the only home for many of these voters. Americans listened when Trump said he had the utmost respect for women, despite his comments in the 2005 video with Billy Bush. They listened when Trump told multiple lies in his speeches and debates. They despised Clinton for her lack of integrity, despite the fact that Trump told the most lies in all three debates. Truth did not matter, because voting is an emotional exercise.
- XENOPHOBIA AND HATE – Though voters’ fears always become political bait to some degree, never has a modern American presidential candidate used fear so extensively. Trump preyed on Islamophobia in his promise to identify all American Muslims. He played to fears of increased immigration by painting all illegal immigrants as rapists and murderers. Trump played to the fears of many socially conservative Americans by suggesting women should be punished for getting abortions, and hinting he wanted to repeal same-sex marriage.
- STRATEGY – My theory is that Trump knew exactly what he was saying and at least partially what demographic he was appealing to. Trump seized on people’s fears and quiet intolerances in a way that no American president since Nixon has been able to do. While other candidates were busy trying to look presidential, Trump was busy trying to look like the Average Joe many working-class Americans would like to have a beer with. His honest, merciless image was calculated, and it worked brilliantly. Even when Trump criticized the Republican leadership, his base loved him all the more for it, as Trump was angry about the same issues they were.
What The Democrats Need to Do Now
- GET RID OF SUPER-DELEGATES – This one isn’t life or death, but party insiders have way too much control over who the party’s nominee is. It should be decided by the rank-and-file membership, as the Republican Party’s nomination process allows for. Super-delegates added to the perception that Clinton was rigging the election.
- WORK ON REGAINING SUPPORT IN CONGRESS – The Republican Party retained their majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Voter fatigue will eventually cease to be on their side with a Republican president in power. Democrats will eventually be able to take advantage of that and crawl their way back into a Senate (and possibly House) majority.
- HOLD TRUMP ACCOUNTABLE – The Democratic Party was the choice of the majority of Americans. Democrats should not fall silent, but continue to hold Republicans, and Trump himself, accountable. Democrats still have the ability to be an effective opposition.
- LISTEN TO THE DISENFRANCHISED — Democrats must listen closely, not just to Sanders and Trump, but to the outcome of the election. The election results showcase a pronounced fatigue with the American establishment—people felt like the government wasn’t listening to them. The Democratic Party (and Republicans) will need to lend a closer ear to those who feel like they are not being heard if they wish to shed this perception.
- REGAIN PUBLIC TRUST — Clinton could not shake the perception that she could not be trusted. Whether or not this was her fault, it represented a huge weak point for her candidacy and in the decision-making of the Democratic Party. The Democrats must keep public perception in mind when choosing which nomination candidate to throw their support behind. If the public does not like a candidate, it does not matter how qualified or experienced they are (i.e. Stephen Harper vs. Justin Trudeau).
Is America, as we know it, finished?
No. The sky will not fall. Trump will not be the next Adolf Hitler. America will pull through as it always tends to do.
As a friend reminded me, Trump’s ineptitude with general facts and global politics could, at its worst, cause the US to become a laughingstock on the world stage.
However, given Trump’s inevitably large team of advisors pulling the strings behind the scenes, this is an unlikely outcome.
As for the Canadian angle, Prime Minister Trudeau is going to go to great lengths to try and work with the Trump administration, so as not to sour the strong ties the US and Canada share. Perhaps they will find more in common than we think. Perhaps they will not get along. What remains is the fact that the US is our friend, and Americans, regardless of party stripe, are our neighbours.
In fact, we’re the true winners of this election after all. O Canada.
