“Keepin’ it Real” is a weekly blog that analyzes news and events in the international system through a realist perspective. Realism describes the international order as anarchical, as actors are looking to serve and achieve their own interests. In this blog, Yugander Sailesh and Matt Clark take a look at Trump’s foreign policy regarding China’s territorial expansion of the South China Sea and its economic implications on Canada and the world.
The South Pacific has become an ever-growing topic of importance in the past few months, with the increase of Chinese influence in the region. The election of Donald Trump has increased the discussion about the South Pacific, given that Trump has claimed he will end the “freeloading” of countries in the South Pacific as well as Japan and South Korea.
Japan pays over $1.8 billion a year and Korea pays $850 million a year to help maintain the US military presence in their countries, according to Justin McCurry of The Guardian. However, Trump still believes it wouldn’t be in the United States best interests to carry the lion’s share of the weight anymore.
Given that Trump had shown such a lack of interest in foreign policy throughout his campaign, it will be interesting to see how China reacts to the US being a counterweight in Asia. The United States will only engage China and the Pacific if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies fulfill their obligations, and if there are national interests pertaining to it. Trump’s policies can be understood as realist, because he believes that the U.S. is being exploited, and that it must focus on itself rather than the rest of the world.
Robert Hunter of The Guardian reports that NATO allies must either appease the U.S. through financial support or look towards alternative partners for collective security. We must also be concerned with how other countries may react to the Chinese expansion into the Pacific.
The U.S. may not come to Japan and South Korea’s defense anymore if Trump believes that the situation does not bear U.S. interests. If China permanently establishes itself in the South China Sea uncontested, then its economy will greatly benefit. There are many natural gas reserves in the area covering the sea, as well as free navigation through the channels of water will provide China full control of the flow of goods. The Chinese economy will receive a major advantage that may shift the economic balance of power in the international system.
It is important to understand the economic implications of Trump’s protectionist policies and China’s territorial expansion of the South China Sea on Canada. With Trump’s dislike of the North American Free Trade Agreement and China’s increasing economic prowess, Trudeau should look towards alternative foreign markets such as Mexico, China or Japan.
According to Monique Scotti of Global News, trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) may as well be consigned to the scrap pile. Canada should look towards alternative agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) to provide economic advantages instead. It is not that Trudeau should cut all ties with the U.S., but in order to ensure Canada’s survival in the future, it should look towards other trading partners to increase its influence in the international system.
No matter how much China plays up that they are only increasing their presence in the Pacific for economic reasons, it is very much a power play. Their expansionary goals into other parts of Asia will be hard to stop if the U.S. decides it does not have the financial wherewithal or national interests to justify providing defense. It will be difficult for countries to oppose China knowing that they will not have the U.S. backing them anymore. With Trump’s slow removal of support towards its allies, it would be in Canada’s best interest to search for more foreign economic partners.
Canada has become dependent on the economy of the U.S. for far too long. Trump’s protectionist economic policies and China’s economic expansion prove to be major obstacles in the future. Canada must satisfy its economic interests elsewhere to continue being a strong competitor in the global economy.
To learn more about TPP and CETA
- https://ustr.gov/tpp/#what-is-tpp
- http://www.international.gc.ca/gac-amc/campaign-campagne/ceta-aecg/index.aspx?lang=eng
