Toronto Blue Jays fans couldn’t receive any news worse than what they learned on Tuesday: Outfielder George Springer was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left knee sprain. He could miss the remainder of the season.
It’s a huge blow for a team making every effort to reach the postseason. Make no mistake: Without Springer, the odds of a Blue Jays postseason are slim to none.
In games he’s started this season, the Blue Jays are 29-20. The rest of the season, the Blue Jays have gone 34-36.
Since Springer returned from his early-season injured list stint on June 22, he ranks in the top 10 in the American League in Wins Above Replacement (10th), home runs (fourth), slugging (third) and runs (tied for second). He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last two months.
Springer since the All-Star break:
🔹 .350 AVG
🔹 1.226 OPS
🔹 24 RBI
🔹 ELEVEN #TBJHomers 😳 pic.twitter.com/6hNBHgZUbp— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 12, 2021
As it stands now, Toronto sits four games back of the second wildcard spot. That means they’ll have to win four more games than any of the teams above them in the standings—the Oakland Athletics, the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners—before the end of the season to make the wildcard game.
The Athletics currently hold the second wildcard spot. If we assume they keep winning at their current pace (a .562 winning percentage), they’ll end the season with 91 wins. To win 92 games and surpass them in the standings, the Blue Jays will have to go 29-14 in their remaining 43 games.
That’s assuming none of the teams ahead of Toronto go on a run. The required wins to make the postseason could escalate quickly if Oakland, Boston or Seattle gets hot.
In the best of times, winning 29 of 43 games is a fantastic stretch. The best 43-game stretch in franchise history was 32-11, accomplished by the incredible 2015 team between July and September of that year. The best 43-game stretch by the Blue Jays in 2021 was accomplished recently, when the team went 27-16 between June 22 and August 11.
That’s nearly the win mark the Blue Jays will have to reach over their next 43 games, so it’s within the realm of possibilities. They also might be helped by Oakland and Boston, which are currently slumping. The Athletics have lost five of their last six games, while the Red Sox are in free fall, going 6-13 since July 29.
If both of those teams continue to lose, the number of wins Toronto will need to make the postseason will drop. But they’ll still have to put up a strong stretch, all without Springer, their $150 million miracle man. That’s a steep hill to climb.
Postseason projections bear that out. Fangraphs puts Toronto’s playoff odds at 18.3 per cent, while FiveThirtyEight puts it at 25 per cent. Baseball Reference is slightly more optimistic at 34.4 per cent, but that’s still a 27.2 per cent decrease from where they had the Blue Jays just one week ago.
Taken in aggregate, the projections paint a depressing picture of what this Blue Jays season might hold. That’s not to say the Blue Jays won’t make the playoffs. I would love for this team to prove me wrong.
It’s certainly possible. The Blue Jays went 24-19 over 43 games between April and June, with Springer only playing four games over that span. If they put up a similar stretch—or slightly better, now that the team has José Berríos on its roster—and Oakland, Boston or New York go into a slump, the Blue Jays could make it into the postseason.
The team is also helped by the head-to-head matchups they have against the teams ahead of them. While their season series against the Red Sox is already completed, the Blue Jays will play three games against the Athletics from Sept. 3 to 5 and have seven games remaining against the Yankees, who currently hold the first wildcard spot.
Those games present huge opportunities to pick up ground in the standings. Each of those games won means a game picked up in the wildcard race. When the Blue Jays are four games back, those games could add up quickly.
It’s also possible that Springer returns to the team in mid-September, given the diagnosis of a Grade 1 knee sprain as opposed to a Grade 2 or 3 sprain, which would be far more serious.
#Bluejays staff in D.C. feel the injury to Springer is “week to week.” Considered less severe than the one which sidelined Bichette four weeks last year. Team will monitor healing process and proceed accordingly.
— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) August 18, 2021
Still, it was already an uphill battle when the Blue Jays had Springer in the leadoff spot. Without Springer, the winds have been taken out of Toronto’s sails. After one of the best homestands in franchise history, the team has gone 3-6 in their last nine games—six of which were against teams under .500.
Before Springer’s latest injury, the Blue Jays already had a thin margin for error in making the postseason. Now, without his bat in the lineup and his influence in the clubhouse, the odds of Toronto making the playoffs are slim to none.
Featured image by Lesly Juarez on Unsplash.
