For over a decade, liberal democracies around the world, particularly in the West, have been focused on the war on terror—rightly so in a post-Sept. 11 world. There has been no shortage of films, 24-hour news coverage, books, and shows on the topic.
However, although covering terrorism and its damaging effects is important, the threat level posed by these radical terror cells seems miniscule compared to the budding rivalry between the two largest global economies—the current “big kid” of the international playground, the United States, and its largest contender, China.
The rivalry between these two countries is rapidly intensifying, as the president of China, Xi Jinping, acts on his ambitions to bring China back to the center stage of global politics. In response, the U.S. has boosted its defence budget to $800 billion USD, and threatened to intensify efforts to create a serious trade war between the two nations. Xi and the Chinese Communist Party aim to reassert China’s global position through the massive belt and road initiative (a development project in Eurasia), neo-colonial development and resource exploitation in Africa, and the “reclaiming” of sovereign territory in the South China sea.
China’s greatest focus, however, is on the expansion of its influence in Eurasia through infrastructural development, and on investment in smaller countries along the historical silk road trading route, which China began during the Han Dynasty roughly 1,900 years ago. Additionally, China is attempting to reclaim Taiwan, integrating it with Hong Kong, and renewing its ownership over heavily disputed islands in the South China Sea.
China’s plans for the 21st century put it on a direct collision course with its largest trading partner and rival, the U.S. Both countries are attempting to expand into the Northeast Pacific Corridor, where Xi would like to assert the Chinese Communist Party’s distinct political values—socialism, autocracy, market control, and state surveillance—on neighbouring countries who have little means to stop him. This is intended to allow new markets to open for Chinese firms and consumers.
One only has to look to Hong Kong, or even the Chinese mainland, to see how the Chinese Communist Party repeals any real semblances of democracy, rights, and freedoms to those under their sphere of influence. An example of this is the party’s silencing of its critics. Another example is the off-and-on banning of Facebook in the mainland, where criticizing the regime can result in a diminished social credit score, or in extreme cases, prison.
Why should this matter to those living in the Canada and the rest of the world? Everything from computer components to smartphones are at least partly manufactured in China.
Canada historically traded massive amounts of wheat and natural resources with the Asian economic superpower. A trade war—even a small one—would raise the prices of goods astronomically.
A trade war would have devastating consequences for companies and governments with lucrative trade deals in China. Companies would be pushed out and have their assets confiscated.
Money is the principal weapon of the possibly incoming trade war between the U.S. and China—a war that will impact us all immensely—which is why it might be a good idea to start getting used to the possibility of Chinese-Western relations getting a bit chilly.
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