Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer resigned from his role as leader of the official opposition on Dec. 12. The Conservative Party’s loss in the October election was more than disappointing. Peter MacKay said it was like “having a breakaway on an open net and missing.” The biggest irony is that Boris Johnson won a large majority in the U.K. on the same day Scheer resigned.
Now, Canadians are unsure of who to turn to. In a minority parliament, all Canadians have a vested interest in the selection of the next official opposition leader. Here are the 12 types of Conservatives we may see in this race.
Perhaps Conservatives will opt for the first type I expect to enter the race, “the debater.” Scheer was heavily criticized for his inability to address his social conservative background in the televised leaders’ debates. Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre brings a more dominant oratory style to the leadership role, given his history of being an attack dog in his role as finance critic.
The next type is “the rerun.” This type of candidate ran in 2017 and is likely to run again. Erin O’Toole, who came third place in 2017, has retained his public profile with a media-friendly role as foreign affairs critic. His recent legislative success in establishing a parliamentary committee to probe worsening China-Canada relations could help Conservatives challenge Trudeau’s global spectre.
Up third is “the resurgent.” This is someone who has faded into relative obscurity from a previous high-profile position within the party. Peter MacKay has not served in public office since 2015, but he is now frequently described as one of the most probable candidates. Could a Progressive Conservative from early 2000s Nova Scotia be the anti-Trudeau leader the right is hoping for?
No article on the Conservatives is complete without the fourth type, “the Albertan.” More than simply hailing from Alberta, this candidate will position their campaign on acting as the representative of Western Canadian interests in the minority parliament. There are ample choices, but Alberta Premier Jason Kenney remains the frontrunner in this category.
What about my fifth and sixth types of candidate, represented by Candice Bergen and Leona Alleslev? The old and new deputies have either long been, or have recently become, trusted members of Scheer’s inner circle. Bergen has served as Opposition House Leader since 2016 and Alleslev was a Liberal MP just one year ago before dramatically crossing the floor. These candidates could rack up valuable party endorsements with an early entry to the race.
Coming in seventh is “the personality.” Michelle Rempel Garner has built a name for herself through social media. The Calgary MP would draw headlines with vocal statements and could cultivate a personal image to rival the prime minister.
“The controversy” marks my eighth choice. Will Ontario Premier Doug Ford ever be able to truly unify the people of Ontario, given how polarized his majority victory last year left the province? Regardless, there is no doubting the shockwaves that Ford Nation would send through any leadership field.
My ninth choice takes us down a level of government, with “the Premier.” Christy Clark led British Columbia for six years until she lost a tight re-election bid to now-Premier John Horgan last year. An experienced leader from a province typically not seen as right-wing could potentially stand out in a crowded field.
The tenth choice is a bit more than simply controversial, like Ford. This is “the outsider.” Think Don Cherry and Jordan Peterson. They are not traditional politicians, but can and will draw lots of attention due to their reputations.
I believe the eleventh type must be “the Mayor.” John Tory led the Ontario PCs from 2004 to 2009. When over 80 per cent of the population lives in cities, having a former provincial leader-turned-mayor at the helm could prove to Canadians that Conservatives value local solutions to local problems.
For the 12th and final choice, there is “the frontrunner.” Rona Ambrose is the only potential candidate who has already led the modern Conservative Party of Canada, unless Stephen Harper makes a surprise political comeback. The media has made clear she is their choice for frontrunner, although not a shoo-in by any means. She would likely mirror Joe Biden’s immediate polling lead in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
So there you have it. Those are the twelve types of Conservatives. Make sure to take some time this winter break and think about the kind of Conservative Party you want to see this time next year.
File photo.
