The recent and steady decline of Liberal support in opinion polls, coupled with a declining media interest in the comings and goings of Justin Trudeau has made me wonder whether or not we are finally witnessing the end of the Trudeau honeymoon.
It’s obvious why the Liberals enjoyed an upswing in opinion polls after virtually acclaiming Trudeau the Younger as their leader.
First, his last name is Trudeau.
Second, he’s really good-looking.
Third, the Harper government has never been so unpopular and fourth, Thomas Mulcair is only well-known in Quebec.
Voters are tired of the current government and not sure what to make of the leader of the official opposition, so they are projecting onto Justin, essentially making him into what they want him to be. The problem for the Liberals is that their leader doesn’t, and probably can’t, live up to those expectations.
He lacks substance, speaks in annoying platitudes and has terrible judgment. The recent spat of senate scandals gave Justin Trudeau an opportunity to demonstrate his worth to Canadians as a potential prime minister and he blew it.
Completely missing the point as to why Canadians are so hostile to the senate, he tried to urge Quebeckers that their over-representation is an advantage against Alberta. So much for “not dividing people.” He was rightly mocked for such a silly comment but true to form he stuck to his guns. This isn’t just a one off thing; this is classic Justin.
Objecting to labelling gender mutilation as barbaric, musing about supporting Quebec sovereignty, flip-flopping on the long gun registry, blaming Canada’s problems on people from Alberta, telling young people not to trust old men—I could go on. Justin Trudeau is a walking, talking gaffe machine.
Even in terms of policy, it is true that Canadians aren’t looking for detailed platforms two years before an election and in all fairness being too policy heavy is part of what killed Stéphane Dion but you need to have something beyond meaningless platitudes.
Ignatieff was also light on policy during his tenure as Liberal leader, it only aided in Conservative efforts to brand him. By comparison Jack Layton talked endlessly about policy and appeared more relevant to the public as an opposition leader. Aside from publicly posting the expenses of MPs online (which is a terrible idea), Justin doesn’t actually have any policies.
Agreeing with the Conservatives on half a dozen, one-off issues and speaking in platitudes about the “middle class,” not dividing people and being positive doesn’t count as having actual policies or ideas of your own.
Don’t kid yourself, Canadians are not stupid.
Mulcair has his work cut out for him but he is still in the race (recent polls have put the NDP at a close third), he is well-known and respected in Quebec and in all honesty that’s why he was elected leader of the NDP. It would be very naive to write the NDP or Thomas Mulcair off as a contender for government in 2015.
Even maintaining status as official opposition in the event of a Conservative minority might be enough to put Mulcair at 24 Sussex Drive.
New Democrats and Conservatives should take Justin Trudeau seriously and in theory, yes he could be our prime minister after 2015 (shudder). But it is anything but inevitable and probably a lot less likely than Justin fans would like to have us believe. There is also a very strong chance that he will still be leading a third party after 2015.
That being said the unpopularity of the current government, the political realignment of Quebec, and competitiveness of both opposition parties will make for an interesting election in 2015.
