With one year left to go until the next federal election, the only orange wave that seems to be hitting the country is Halloween fever.
Polls continue to show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberals leading nationwide, with Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives expected to remain in opposition.
Meanwhile, Maxime Bernier’s new libertarian-esque People’s Party already has drawn the interest of at least 17 per cent of Canadians. Even the Green Party is building provincial support that they hope will translate into a federal caucus. But, what must we make of our traditional third party?
I remember when two years ago, members of the New Democratic Party (NDP) were full of hope after expelling former leader Tom Mulcair. They believed Mulcair was the reason they had lost their chance to form the federal government in 2015, by being outflanked on the left by the Liberals.
The party rallied around four unique leadership candidates and eventually voted in Ontario NDP deputy leader Jagmeet Singh by a wide margin, arguing his youth and progressive views would be the perfect challenge to the Trudeau government.
Despite the hope for an orange wave, an Innovative Research poll from Oct. 1 shows Singh’s NDP is sitting at just 15 per cent support nationwide. This is lower than what Mulcair received on election night in 2015. Under Singh, the NDP has never polled above 23 per cent. Why is it that, despite the enthusiasm he saw in the leadership election, Singh has done virtually nothing to improve the NDP’s chances of winning in 2019?
Singh’s allies argue NDP support will increase if he wins the upcoming byelection in Burnaby South. I disagree—Singh has failed to leverage leadership over his caucus since day one.
The most recent example is Singh’s ejection of MP Erin Weir from the party, despite objection from his caucus and in particular, the Saskatchewan NDP.
Former NDP leadership candidates Charlie Angus and Niki Ashton are becoming increasingly independent without any visible guidance from their leader, and the party in general has a complete lack of focus. For example, the party refused to take a stance on whether to support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, when a defined stance could have done wonders for the party.
This isn’t about a lack of opportunity for Singh to become noticed and engaged. This is about his inability to exert leadership and present a platform Canadians can get behind. Remember when former U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton ignored blue collar voters in the rust belt, and subsequently lost the election to U.S. President Donald Trump?
The NDP seems to have also abandoned its traditional working-class base, which were priorities for other leadership candidates like Ashton and Guy Caron. There are many current events that showcase the potential for a worker-centric progressive party. The most obvious one is that the revised North American trade agreement, USMCA, is seen by many Canadians as a threat to Canadian auto and dairy workers.
The NDP could capture both workers’ frustration with the Liberal government’s policies as well as a desire for continued progressive politics. Why do they need to choose one or the other, considering that politicians like Bernie Sanders built entire movements off this sentiment?
I am not saying there is no hope for the NDP. We still have one year until the next election—that is plenty of time for Singh to win a seat in the House of Commons, present a bold and progressive worker-centric platform, and make himself and the NDP a real choice for government in 2019.
Stabilizing the party and presenting a focused vision will allow the NDP to capture voters turned off by broken promises from the Liberals, who also aren’t comfortable supporting the Conservatives. The NDP must move fast, however, or risk facing a defeat on election night that will threaten to throw them into irrelevance for years to come.
