In just a few days, actors, producers, directors and film crews will walk the red carpet in Los Angeles for the 97th Academy Awards ceremony.
This year’s nominees include big-budget epics, the secret assembly of cardinals tasked with electing a new pope and two movie musicals up for Best Picture for the first time since 1969.
With many trophies scattered across different nominees this season, 2025 offers an Oscars race that’s less predictable than previous years — particularly for the top awards.
We’re here to analyze 10 categories and offer our best guess as to who will take home the award… along with our personal picks to win.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Kieran Culkin is one of the only near-certain locks heading into this year’s ceremony. He already has the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG Award for this performance to prove it. And what a performance it is, as Culkin plays Benji Kaplan, a grieving cousin exploring Poland to honour his late grandmother alongside Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain.
In a year with decently strong Supporting Actor nominees — Guy Pearce in The Brutalist is adeptly horrifying and Jeremy Strong is top notch in The Apprentice — Culkin is almost certain to walk away with the prize.
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Daniel’s pick: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Alexa’s pick: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Emilia Perez garnering 13 Academy Awards may have stirred up a considerable amount of controversy, but it’s hard to say that Zoe Saldaña isn’t the best part of the film. Award voters have agreed, and much like Culkin, Saldaña has swept the previous award ceremonies, earning the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG Award — leaving just one more trophy to collect.
It would be a total shock if any other actress grabs the award, as deserving as Ariana Grande’s performance may be in Wicked.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Daniel’s pick: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez
Alexa’s pick: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
It’s safe to say that we were not fans of The Brutalist — and we have a feeling that Academy voters won’t be dishing out screenplay or director awards to the four-hour saga. But our taste and assumption of the Academy’s taste does not discredit the work that Adrien Brody put into his role as a famed Hungarian-Jewish architect.
Having taken home most of the trophies throughout the season — apart from the well-deserved SAG for Timothée Chalamet’s brilliance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown — A Brody acting win seems upon the horizon.
Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Daniel’s pick: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Alexa’s pick: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
In both leading actor and actress categories, it’s interesting to note the race between the younger and up-and-coming, Timothée Chalamet and Mikey Madison, and the more experienced actors, Brody and Demi Moore. We’re giving the Best Actress edge to Moore’s haunting portrayal in The Substance, given the Academy’s tendency to hand out legacy trophies (see Jamie Lee Curtis in Everywhere Everywhere All At Once).
While we’re both rooting for Madison to bag an Oscar to go alongside her BAFTA for her shining portrayal as Ani, a Brooklyn sex worker in Anora, we’re confident that her time will come somewhere down the line.
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Daniel’s pick: Mikey Madison, Anora
Alexa’s pick: Mikey Madison, Anora
Best Director
A two-horse race between newcomer Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and indie film icon Sean Baker for Anora, we’re confident that the latter will take home the trophy — not just because it’s well overdue (see The Florida Project, Tangerine), but also on account of an intriguing award statistic.
Since 1948, the Directors Guild of America Award for Best Director has aligned with the Oscars’ winner all but eight times. Additionally, there has been just one discrepancy in the past decade — Sam Mendes’ 2019 win for 1917. With Baker taking the honour this year, we expect the pattern to hold.
Will win: Sean Baker, Anora
Daniel’s pick: Sean Baker, Anora
Alexa’s pick: Sean Baker, Anora
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave is the likely pick for this category thanks to its sharp, intelligent writing and solid pace. Peter Straughan’s adaptation of Robert Harris’ 2016 novel does a great job balancing the intricacies of the Catholic Church with human drama, crafting a script that’s both compelling and personal.
Its richly drawn characters, brought to life by a star-studded cast including Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rosselini, further push the film into Oscar territory. To boot, Straughan has already taken home the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, which makes this pick a little bit easier.
Will win: Conclave by Peter Straughan
Daniel’s pick: Conclave by Peter Straughan
Alexa’s pick: Conclave by Peter Straughan
Best Original Screenplay
It’s a fair guess that Anora will take this one home, if Baker is also expected to take the Directing win. It also helps that it’s a gritty drama with comedic elements sprinkled throughout, tackling themes of class and identity. Classic Oscars stuff.
While it’s always exhilarating to see a year with particularly impressively screenwriting, it’s a shame that the ambitious The Substance and quaint, wholesome A Real Pain are virtually out of the running. But Anora’s screenplay win would be far from undeserving.
Will win: Anora by Sean Baker
Daniel’s pick: The Substance by Coralie Fargeat
Alexa’s pick: A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist has its flaws, but its greatest strength is its brilliant cinematography. The film sets the tone early, beginning with an upside-down shot of the Statue of Liberty as the film’s main character arrives in the United States. Like the iconic landmark, his life has been completely turned upside-down — the shot also represents the falsehoods of the American Dream.
On top of that, numerous shots thrust the audience right into the movie, as we’re at points following closely behind a car our main character is travelling in, or up close and personal with his designed structures. There are countless scenes where the cinematography grabs the viewer, and at points this can be distracting. But that’s not necessarily a drawback — that’s just a sign of cinematographer Lol Crawley’s job well done.
Will win: The Brutalist
Daniel’s pick: The Brutalist
Alexa’s pick: Dune: Part Two
Best Original Score
Another success for The Brutalist is its inspiring score by Daniel Blumberg. The 35-year-old composer employs a great mix of brass and piano, and toward the end of the film, a 1980s style synthesizer, which shows off both the movie’s time jumps and Blumberg’s versatility. A film’s score is an essential part of any flick, and whether it complements the movie is crucial. Blumberg ensures the score fits into the puzzle, as it feels as promising as the young architect himself.
Will win: The Brutalist
Daniel’s pick: The Brutalist
Alexa’s pick: The Brutalist
Best Picture
Thought-provoking, elegantly-shot and a solid film from start to end, Conclave seems like the safest bet for the top award of the night. It has a relatively tame and digestible plot, encompassing relevant social themes powered by Oscar-nominated performances.
Conclave has emerged as the frontrunner following its Best Film win at the BAFTAs and Best Ensemble victory at the SAG Awards. Though The Brutalist may be a close contender, its near four-hour runtime could hold it back.
However, Anora is Conclave’s strongest competitor, winning the Palme D’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, as well as Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards. Considering that Anora was deemed the best film of the year by both producers and directors is intriguing to say the least — it’ll be tight, but we think Conclave will hold on to win the top prize.
Will win: Conclave
Daniel’s pick: Conclave
Alexa’s pick: Anora
As a bonus, here are a few people who deserved Academy Award nominations, but were unfortunately overlooked:
- Denzel Washington, Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II
- Margaret Qualley, Best Supporting Actress for The Substance
- Daniel Craig, Best Actor for Queer
- Jesse Eisenberg, Best Actor for A Real Pain
- Jon. M. Chu, Best Director for Wicked
- Denis Villenueve, Best Director for Dune: Part Two
- Justin Kuritzkes, Best Original Screenplay for Challengers
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Best Original Score for Challengers
Featured image by IMDb.
