San Diego Padres 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. will retire with millions of dollars after signing a 14-year, $340-million extension earlier this month—the longest and third-largest contract in baseball history.
Tatis, a generational superstar who promises to be one of the most exciting players across baseball, isn’t alone in his talent. Could a similar extension be in the cards for the Toronto Blue Jays’ own 22-year-old shortstop, Bo Bichette?
The Blue Jays and Padres find themselves at similar crossroads. While San Diego is a year or two ahead of Toronto in its development, both teams feature strong young cores and bright futures. The Padres are shaping up to be a force to be reckoned with in the NL West—if they can usurp the dynasty that is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Blue Jays aren’t the same type of team yet. Their starting rotation leaves much to be desired and the bullpen isn’t perfect. When Toronto inevitably solves those problems over the next few years, they will become what the Padres are now: a bonafide threat to win the World Series.
Even though the Blue Jays aren’t there yet, that doesn’t mean they can’t start thinking about their long-term plans. Bichette’s service time clock is ticking after playing 75 major league games, and he’s already proven himself to be an all-star—if not an MVP.
In 2019, Bichette hit .311 and was worth 2.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in just 46 games, meaning he contributed 2.3 more wins than a minor league replacement would have. While injured for part of 2020, he followed up his debut season with a .301 batting average and 1.0 WAR over 29 games.
If the season wasn’t shortened and he hadn’t been injured, he would have posted a WAR of 5.6. Those are big ifs, but it provides a picture of just how good Bichette can be.
Now, those aren’t Tatis-like numbers, and Bichette doesn’t deserve Tatis-like money. Tatis has played nearly double the amount of major league games and has a career 154 OPS+—meaning he has been 54 per cent better than the MLB average in getting on base and hitting for power—compared to Bichette’s 137 OPS+. In 2020, Tatis was on pace to be worth 7.6 WAR.
Still, Bichette is projected to be a star. He has the talent and magnetic personality of a player who could sign a long-term extension, and the situational luck to be on a team that just might be willing to splurge.
After a big off-season, will the historically cautious Toronto ownership be willing to spend even more—and perhaps break records along the way?
That’s the question that remains to be answered. The Blue Jays broke out of the mold this off-season by spending upwards of $180 million in free agency, and seem to be rounding the corner in terms of aggressiveness in acquiring talent. Spending $200 million over 10 years—a reasonable prediction of what Bichette could be worth—might still be a step too far.
At a time of transition for the Blue Jays, their approach and intentions with some of their biggest stars remains to be seen. There is inherent risk in dropping so much money on a 22-year-old like Bichette, just as there is in committing $340 million to 22-year-old Tatis.
On the flip side, there’s much to be won for the Blue Jays if Bichette remains the player he projects to be. At an average annual value of $20 million, Bichette would come as a bargain and long-term face of a city still searching for its recognizable star.
For the Blue Jays, it at least merits consideration.
