Commission report reveals ‘polycrisis’ of global inequities, organized violence

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A report led by Valerie Percival, an associate professor at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, examines how state-based conflict can be remedied through multiple pathways. [Photo provided by Valerie Percival]

Optimism and uncertainty faced panellists on the Lancet Commission as they unveiled their report on peaceful societies through health equity and gender equality on Sept. 7.

The Lancet’s report, authored in partnership with the Wilson Center, sought to examine how improving access to reliable healthcare and empowering those with marginalized gender identities can remedy state-based conflict and other forms of organized violence.

The Lancet is a weekly international medical journal that has garnered attention for its intersectional reports on medicine and global affairs.

Valerie Percival, lead author of the report and associate professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, stressed the uncertain global situation as a “polycrisis.”

The term polycrisis suggests how organized violence and victimhood can be understood by looking at multiple sources, such as how promoting health and gender equality can foster peaceful societies.

“To enable us to analyze these complex relationships, we adopted a concept of self-reinforcing cycles,” Percival said. “To relate this all back to the polycrisis, the influence of a beneficial cycle can aggregate over time and cascade across other political, economic, and social systems.”

The commission’s findings are framed by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, a set of 17 goals which seek to address issues such as climate action and inequality on a global scale.

The commission places emphasis on framing inequities through multiple SDGs rather than looking at the problem through a single lens.

Tarja Halonen, chair of the Lancet Commission and former president of Finland, said the report’s message is clear. “Health equity and gender equality have a unique and powerful ability to contribute to global peace,” she said.

The COVID-19 pandemic allowed the commission to better understand how inequalities affect and interact with lower income communities, Halonen said.

“The world was already facing many big challenges when our commission’s work was launched in 2019. In many ways, we’ve seen these challenges intensify in recent years,” she added

The report used an analysis of national statistics and previous case studies to determine the existence of Percival’s ‘self-reinforcing cycles’.

“The statistics we used for gender equality were mean years of schooling, adolescent fertility rate [and] for health equity, we used infant mortality, life expectancy and various indicators from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program,” Percival said.

The commission’s findings revealed that reductions to infant mortality rates as little as 10 per cent were associated with a 25 per cent reduction in the mean civilian death rate from one-sided violence.

Similarly, the commission used statistics such as female mobile phone ownership to reveal how access to information and communication influenced conflict and health outcomes. Data shows rates were up to 70 per cent lower than men in countries of the Global South.

Panellists were quick to acknowledge the harsh reality of the situation in their respective regions. Dr. Ahmed Al-Mandhari, World Health Organization director for the Eastern Mediterranean region, spoke on the region’s continued difficulty in bridging the gaps between health and gender outcomes.

“When we look at health equity and gender equality, the statistics are not inspiring in our countries,” Al-Mandhari said. “This Lancet Commission has further confirmed this evidence.”

“This was the first step of a research agenda,” Percival said. “There are huge gaps in the data, that’s one of the reasons we had to do very aggregate-level analysis.”

When asked how Carleton students in programs such as the school of international affairs might view the report, Percival highlighted the report’s focus on pivoting the conversation away from national security interests.

“I think one of my concerns with the current climate of international affairs in Canada and abroad is that it tends to be very focused on national security and national interests,” she said.

Percival added she would like to encourage a humane approach to international affairs among Carleton students.

“I think what we hope students will take away from this report is that you can pivot your approach to more human security; to focus on engagement that improves the dignity and potential of individuals and groups has tremendous long-term benefits.”


Featured image provided by Valerie Percival.