Thanks for the memories, Bo
Go Bo gadget. Or so the Toronto Blue Jays may have said, I don’t know. Either way, Bo Bichette recently signed with the New York Mets. That leaves Blue Jays fans in a difficult position: Bichette was a star player who helped lead the team to a World Series, a .300 hitter with a propensity for doubles, and he had a cool haircut. However, at the same time, some fans (like me) see the contract he signed with the Mets and the defensive uncertainty surrounding him and raise our eyebrows. I certainly liked Bo, but I’m more cantaloupe than melancholy; it’s hard not to have mixed feelings. So here’s 11 numbers that I’ll personally use to remember No.11.
1 — home runs off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series.
That was awesome. In my opinion, it was more iconic than George Springer’s home run in Game 7 of the ALCS. I think at the end of the day, we can obsess over advanced statistics and try to be really insightful about every player, but the game is a results business, and Bichette had the chutzpah and skill to take Ohtani deep in Game 7. I’ll remember him for that more than anything else.
-13 — outs above average in 2025
Or -10 fielding run value and a -12 mark in defensive runs saved if you prefer. Suffice to say, Bichette was an awful fielder. He ranked as the worst shortstop in baseball by three different advanced stats. This is important for a number of reasons.
One, let it serve as a reminder that errors are a fundamentally flawed statistic, because good fielders are subject to being charged with them. They’re graced with an adequate enough range to reach baseballs hit in their direction, thereby touching it, and on occasion committing an error. Bad fielders have poor range and fail to reach baseballs, sparing themselves errors. As a result, most fans are blind to the worst fielders in baseball (granted, one shouldn’t abandon the eye test, but regardless), and Bichette is no exception.
The Mets will have him play third base so he won’t be subject to the range requirements necessary to play shortstop. The chances Bichette will be a serviceable defender are certainly low — especially in his first year at a new position. Fans in Queens will have to deal with that now.
0 — Games at Third Base
Yikes. You want to pay Bo how much to play a position where he’s played zero games? After he was the worst shortstop in baseball? Okay.
2nd — overall in slugging percentage among hitters with a K% lower than 14.6.
This number reflects Bichette’s exceptional raw hitting ability. I’ll call this his oomph clip — among all hitters with a K% equal or lower than his own (14.5 per cent), Bichette has the second-highest slugging percentage. His K% is particularly low relative to league-average (22.2 per cent) and thus Bichette, and others hitters like him naturally incur a forfeiture of power — or oomph — in order to make so much contact. But against hitters cutting their strikeouts at a rate similar to him, Bichette is getting the second most power as measured by SLG (only trailing perennial All-Star Jose Ramirez).
The value of giving his team both power and limited strikeouts is enormous, and that shouldn’t go understated.
.253 — Bichette’s average with two strikes.
It may not seem like much, but consider the league batting average in two-strike counts was .169. Again, Bichette’s raw hitting ability is incredible. So often, he could be ultra-aggressive early in counts — enabling him the opportunity for extra base hits and home runs — and then still post with two strikes like no one else in baseball. Seriously, that was the fifth-highest mark in the majors.
What’s interesting to me is that he was only one point lower than teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in non-two-strike counts (.456 vs. .455, and No. 44 and 45 overall). Maybe that’s equally a comment on how passive Guerrero was at the plate, but it’s still quite stark because we know that Guerrero’s swing and stature gives him much more raw power. Nice.
4 — seasons since Bo Bichette was productive on the bases.
Don’t forget, Bichette stole 25 bases in 2021, and that was during the season when Toronto led baseball in home runs and foreseeably would have been at the highest detriment risk per steal. The best part is that he was only caught stealing once. Since his speedster season, he has swiped just 27 bags.
So, what happened?
I really don’t know. His OBP peaked in 2021, but it only saw a marginal fall in 2022 and 2023. My hunch is that it’s a combination of factors. I imagine opponents figured out his tendencies and were better able to keep him at bay, somehow. I also think the Blue Jays shifted their own offensive strategy away from base steals. But it’s weird to me that he went from so many steals on the base paths to almost none.
That’s why I really think there’s a physical aspect here – I wonder if the toll of playing has made him unable to run in the same fashion. Remember, he had serious leg injuries in both 2024 and 2025. And now not only is he not stealing bases, he’s a really poor baserunner. An interesting tidbit is the fact that a scouting report on Bichette from 2017 notes how his speed declined from above-average in high school to just average in the minor leagues after filling out more. (But I digress.)
His baserunning accumulated a -3.2 runs grade on Fangraphs, putting Bichette in just the 10th percentile. His ultimate baserunning runs mark (which excludes stolen bases and caught stealing) has declined every season from 2021-2024. That means his ability to advance bases and run from first to third has seen a fall every year. Meanwhile, his expected baserunning runs (how many runs Bichette would be expected to achieve based on his statcast) is -1.8. His weighted stolen base runs is -1.5. His weighted grounded into double play figure (which measures the extent of a player’s double plays hit into per opportunities and weighs them based on situational detriment) has been negative every year since 2021. That’s partly his propensity for contact, yes, but it also means he’s not running out a number of his ground balls. And though slightly better, his raw sprint speed was only in the 21st percentile. Not great. In 2021 — the year of his speed — his sprint speed was in the 75th percentile.
I’m certainly worried about what this decline means. He’s only 27.
3rd — highest wRC+ among hitters with an opposite field rate of over 30 per cent.
Bichette loves hitting to the opposite field. And where only 11 hitters with an opposite field rate above 30 per cent qualified as above average in wRC+ (including Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and Nathan Lukes) Bo Bichette was the third best in baseball. This is key because the ability to make solid contact deep into the zone (which leads to opposite field contact) enables a hitter to reap several benefits. That obviously correlates to more hits, contact and OBP (more view time = more walks). I also think this skill enables Bichette to hit well in high-leverage situations.
Consider that Bichette was 20th overall with a 223 wRC+ in high-leverage plate appearances in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning (min. 10 PA). I would hypothesize that’s because the relief pitchers with the most potent stuff pitch in the highest leverage situations, and subsequently those high leverage arms have the most late movement. That kind of stuff can only be countered by hitters who can attack pitches deep in the hitting zone. At large, this may have factored into why the Blue Jays were so good at late comebacks in 2025, as Kirk and Lukes were both among the 11 above-average leaderboard hitters. Regardless, the skill to go opposite field at will (and for hits) also guards against the shift. So kudos to Bo, I’ll remember that.
4.9 — the combined WAR of Barger in 2025 and Kazuma Okamoto’s projected contributions to the Blue Jays in 2026.
I just want to point out that the combined WAR of Addison Barger and Kazuma Okamoto is 1.1 wins more than Bo Bichette’s. If we think about it another way, Bichette is worth only about one more win than Okamoto if both were put against a replacement level player (and presumably the Blue Jays could not have signed both). Given the Jays got Okamoto on a four-year contract with no opt-outs, I really can’t be that upset.
13 — where the Blue Jays placed in team home run ranking, 2025.
The Blue Jays placed just 13th in home runs last season. While the 2025 team is beloved for their underdog persona and the scrappy, collective and retro-style of scoring (that is, not with a home run). In this day and age, that’s not supposed to work. After all, batting average on balls hit in play fluctuates a lot year-to-year for hitters and pitchers because it is so unpredictable and dependent on uncontrollable factors like defence. Plausibly, the Tyler Heinemans and Nathan Lukes of the world could change nothing heading into 2026 and see a drastic decline in production by virtue of their balls finding gloves. In fact, I expect it for a few hitters.
Home runs (and walks and strikeouts), meanwhile, are a much more predictable output. Beyond that, to score runs on a home run you don’t need consecutive hits. That’s key because you’re lowering the threshold required to score runs. Thus, the Blue Jays should really be trying to add more home runs to their offence.
Here’s a table that illustrates the correlation between home runs and winning games since 2015. Between 2018 and 2023, it appears to have been the most correlated.
| Year | Home Run Leaders (Org) | Records |
| 2025 | Yankees (274), Dodgers (244) | 94-68 (NYY), 93-69 (LAD) |
| 2024 | Yankees (237), Orioles (235) | 94-68 (NYY), 91-71 (BAL) |
| 2023 | Braves (307), Dodgers (249) | 104-58 (ATL), 100-62 (LAD) |
| 2022 | Yankees (254), Braves (243) | 99-63 (NYY), 101-61 (ATL) |
| 2021 | Blue Jays (262), Giants (241) | 91-71 (TOR), 107-55 (SFG) |
| 2020 | Dodgers (118), Braves (103) | 43-17 (LAD), 35-25 (ATL) |
| 2019 | Twins (307), Yankees (306) | 101-61 (MIN), 103-59 (NYY) |
| 2018 | Yankees (267), Dodgers (235) | 100-62 (NYY), 92-71 (LAD) |
| 2017 | Yankees (241), Astros (238) | 91-71 (NYY), 101-61 (HOU) |
| 2016 | Orioles (253), Cardinals (225) | 89-73 (BAL), 86-76 (STL) |
| 2015 | Blue Jays (232), Astros (230) | 93-69 (TOR), 86-76 (HOU) |
Even though hitting is not even half the game, the team with the most home runs is near the top of the league and more often than not was set for a deep playoff run (remember, home runs typically play against elite pitching and in the postseason). And by including the top two teams, we know it’s probably not some other factor on the Yankees or Dodgers leading to so many wins. I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that year-after-year teams like the Yankees, Braves and Dodgers were able to win 90-100 games consistently over the decade.
And of course, though he’s an elite hitter, Bichette is not a home run oriented hitter. I think the Jays would be better off adding more home runs to their team if they can. So, maybe they’re better off playing Barger at third base, Clement at second and giving Anthony Santander and his 40+ home run skill a legitimate opportunity.
5 M — the bonus Bo Bichette will receive from the Mets if he decides to opt-out of his contract.
$500 M — the total contract the Blue Jays offered to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
I think this is ridiculous. Bichette will be getting a $5 million bonus to walk after the end of years one or two. What? They’re seemingly encouraging him to leave? Yes. He’s also got a full no-trade clause, which is never team-friendly.
I think the Mets are on the hook for a lose-lose contract. If Bichette plays great, he leaves, and if he drastically underperforms, New York is stuck with him. Not to mention he plays very poor defence and can’t run the way he used to. That means the measure of success for Bichette is pretty clear: It’s hit or bust. That spells out a bad contract for me.
All offseason, the Blue Jays have seemingly preferred long-term deals and major commitments as opposed to short-term opt-out full contracts. As a fan, I can appreciate that. You’re establishing faith in a player and you and said player are set up for mutual benefit if he succeeds. I wanted to point out here that the Blue Jays offered Guerrero a $500 M, 15-year contract and how Bichette and Vladdy were near equal in value last season (3.8 vs. 3.9 WAR). I can commend Toronto on that deal because a team can’t win on a deal with opt-outs. Vladdy is also a gold glover, so at least when he’s not doing well at the plate there’s some fallback value. Ultimately, I would rather leave Bichette to sign with another team if he requires this kind of contract.
At the same time, he’s a special hitter. It sucks to lose that.
See ya around, Bo.
Featured image by Erik Drost/Wikipedia Commons
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